Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Gyeongnam FC vs Ansan Greeners

Prediction Audit: Gyeongnam FC vs Ansan Greeners Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyeongnam FC Gyeongnam FC
Jul 19, 2026 - 10:30
5 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 27%
Ansan Greeners Ansan Greeners

AI correctly predicted the Gyeongnam FC win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gyeongnam FC Gyeongnam FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gyeongnam FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gyeongnam FC -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyeongnam FC 43.5% 53.8% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.6% 25.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Ansan Greeners 27.9% 21.0% +6.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Gyeongnam FC's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.5%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gyeongnam FC win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gyeongnam FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gyeongnam FC higher (53.8% vs model 43.5%, 10.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gyeongnam FC win 5–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyeongnam FC 43.5% · Draw 28.6% · Ansan Greeners 27.9%
    • xG · Gyeongnam FC 1.39 — Ansan Greeners 1.21
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyeongnam FC 1.77 · Draw 3.77 · Ansan Greeners 4.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyeongnam FC 53.8% · Draw 25.2% · Ansan Greeners 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gyeongnam FC 1.77 · Draw 3.77 · Ansan Greeners 4.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyeongnam FC 53.8% · Draw 25.2% · Ansan Greeners 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyeongnam FC win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1657118

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyeongnam FC win · Gyeongnam FC 5–0 Ansan Greeners
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Gyeongnam FC vs Ansan Greeners
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Gyeongnam FC 1.39 — Ansan Greeners 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13