The model missed the final outcome (Mosul win 2–3).
The model had projected Al-Qasim at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al-Qasim Mosul ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al-Qasim; match finished Mosul
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Mosul win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Al-Qasim 1.49 — Mosul 1.23
-
Jan 28, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mosul win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mosul win · Al-Qasim 2–3 Mosul
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Iraqi League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 25 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 59 |
| 2 | Al Shorta | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 53 |
| 3 | Erbil | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 52 |
| 4 | Al Talaba | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 48 |
| 5 | Al Zawra'a | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Al-Karma | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | Zakho | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Al Karkh | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 9 | Newroz | 25 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 37 |
| 10 | Duhok | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 11 | Naft | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 12 | Mosul | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 13 | Diyala | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 14 | Gharraf | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 15 | Al Minaa Basra | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 |
| 16 | Naft Maysan | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 22 |
| 17 | Baghdad | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 22 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 21 |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 12 |
| 20 | Al-Qasim | 25 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Shorta | 25 | 46 | 22 | +24 | 53 |
| 2 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 25 | 37 | 15 | +22 | 59 |
| 3 | Erbil | 25 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 52 |
| 4 | Al-Karma | 25 | 35 | 20 | +15 | 43 |
| 5 | Al Talaba | 25 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 25 | 33 | 21 | +12 | 46 |
| 7 | Al Karkh | 25 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 41 |
| 8 | Zakho | 25 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 43 |
| 9 | Newroz | 25 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 37 |
| 10 | Diyala | 25 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 32 |
| 11 | Duhok | 25 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 34 |
| 12 | Naft | 25 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 33 |
| 13 | Mosul | 25 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 33 |
| 14 | Naft Maysan | 25 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 22 |
| 15 | Baghdad | 25 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 25 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 32 |
| 17 | Al Kahrabaa | 25 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 21 |
| 18 | Al Minaa Basra | 25 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 26 |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 25 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 12 |
| 20 | Al-Qasim | 25 | 7 | 58 | -51 | 2 |
