The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Willem II U21 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Willem II U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Willem II U21; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Willem II U21 1.45 — Groningen U21 1.25
-
Apr 11, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Willem II U21 1–1 Groningen U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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U21 Divisie 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Groningen U21 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 34 |
| 2 | Feyenoord U21 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Cambuur U21 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Willem II U21 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Willem II Tilburg U21 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Twente / Heracles U21 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | De Graafschap U21 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle U21 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles U21 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord U21 | 14 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 23 |
| 2 | Cambuur U21 | 14 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 22 |
| 3 | Twente / Heracles U21 | 14 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 20 |
| 4 | Groningen U21 | 14 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 34 |
| 5 | Willem II U21 | 15 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 | Willem II Tilburg U21 | 15 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 22 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle U21 | 14 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 15 |
| 8 | De Graafschap U21 | 14 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 18 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles U21 | 14 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 12 |
