Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast / Dorostol vs Cherno more II

Prediction Audit: Dorostol vs Cherno more II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dorostol Dorostol
Mar 21, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Cherno more II Cherno more II

The model missed the final outcome (Cherno more II win 1–3).

The model had projected Dorostol at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dorostol Cherno more II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Dorostol; match finished Cherno more II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Cherno more II win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Dorostol 1.45 — Cherno more II 1.25
  2. Mar 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Cherno more II win · 1–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 22:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3217987

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cherno more II win · Dorostol 1–3 Cherno more II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Third League - Northeast Matches Track Dorostol Next Match Prediction Track Cherno more II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Third League - Northeast Third League - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chernomorets Balchik 22 17 4 1 55
2 Ludogorets III 22 17 4 1 55
3 Septemvri Tervel 21 17 3 1 54
4 Volov Shumen 23 14 3 6 45
5 Benkovski Isperih 21 12 6 3 42
6 Cherno more II 23 12 5 6 41
7 Chernolomets 1919 20 13 1 6 40
8 Ustrem Donchevo 22 12 2 8 38
9 Olympic Varna 23 8 5 10 29
10 Dorostol 23 8 3 12 27
11 Spartak Varna II 23 7 2 14 23
12 Aksakovo 22 7 2 13 23
13 Fratria II 21 6 4 11 22
14 Botev Novi Pazar 22 5 3 14 18
15 Svetkavitsa 14 20 4 5 11 17
16 Riltsi 22 4 3 15 15
17 Svetkavitsa Targovishte 32 0 1 31 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ludogorets III 22 69 12 +57 55
2 Chernomorets Balchik 22 61 12 +49 55
3 Septemvri Tervel 21 58 15 +43 54
4 Volov Shumen 23 54 25 +29 45
5 Ustrem Donchevo 22 54 44 +10 38
6 Cherno more II 23 52 33 +19 41
7 Benkovski Isperih 21 51 24 +27 42
8 Olympic Varna 23 47 51 -4 29
9 Chernolomets 1919 20 43 26 +17 40
10 Spartak Varna II 23 31 44 -13 23
11 Aksakovo 22 29 49 -20 23
12 Fratria II 21 26 40 -14 22
13 Dorostol 23 24 38 -14 27
14 Riltsi 22 21 41 -20 15
15 Botev Novi Pazar 22 20 47 -27 18
16 Svetkavitsa 14 20 17 32 -15 17
17 Svetkavitsa Targovishte 32 5 129 -124 0
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast Predictions