Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Dinamo Batumi vs Saburtalo

Prediction Audit: Dinamo Batumi vs Saburtalo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dinamo Batumi Dinamo Batumi
Sep 09, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.07
0 1.53
xG Accuracy: 51%
Saburtalo Saburtalo

The model missed the final outcome (Dinamo Batumi win 2–0).

The model had projected Saburtalo at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Saburtalo Dinamo Batumi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dinamo Batumi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dinamo Batumi -23.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dinamo Batumi 25.0% 48.0% -23.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 27.4% +1.4 pp Aligned
Saburtalo 46.3% 24.6% +21.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dinamo Batumi's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.0%, a difference of 23.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dinamo Batumi win 2–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Saburtalo; match finished Dinamo Batumi
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Saburtalo by 23.0 percentage points (69.3% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dinamo Batumi 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Saburtalo 46.3%
    • xG · Dinamo Batumi 1.07 — Saburtalo 1.53
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dinamo Batumi 1.86 · Draw 3.26 · Saburtalo 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Batumi 48.0% · Draw 27.4% · Saburtalo 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dinamo Batumi 1.86 · Draw 3.26 · Saburtalo 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Batumi 48.0% · Draw 27.4% · Saburtalo 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dinamo Batumi win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6750960

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Batumi win · Dinamo Batumi 2–0 Saburtalo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Dinamo Batumi vs Saburtalo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Dinamo Batumi 1.07 — Saburtalo 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Saburtalo
  • Model: 46.3% · Implied: 24.6% · Probability edge: +21.7 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions