Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Saburtalo vs Samgurali

Prediction Audit: Saburtalo vs Samgurali Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Saburtalo Saburtalo
Sep 05, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.46
1 1.14
xG Accuracy: 83%
Samgurali Samgurali

AI correctly predicted the Saburtalo win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Saburtalo Saburtalo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Saburtalo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Saburtalo -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Saburtalo 42.9% 49.4% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 25.0% +4.2 pp Aligned
Samgurali 27.9% 25.6% +2.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Saburtalo's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Saburtalo win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Saburtalo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Saburtalo higher (49.4% vs model 42.9%, 6.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Saburtalo win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Saburtalo 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Samgurali 27.9%
    • xG · Saburtalo 1.46 — Samgurali 1.14
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Saburtalo 1.85 · Draw 3.65 · Samgurali 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo 49.4% · Draw 25.0% · Samgurali 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Saburtalo 1.85 · Draw 3.65 · Samgurali 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo 49.4% · Draw 25.0% · Samgurali 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Saburtalo win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160474

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Saburtalo win · Saburtalo 2–1 Samgurali
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Saburtalo vs Samgurali
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Saburtalo 1.46 — Samgurali 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions