AI correctly predicted the Dila win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Dila Dila ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dila | 39.9% | 53.6% | -13.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.0% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Gagra | 30.6% | 20.4% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Dila's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dila win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Dila than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dila higher (53.6% vs model 39.9%, 13.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dila win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dila 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Gagra 30.6%
- xG · Dila 1.40 — Gagra 1.20
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dila 1.73 · Draw 3.57 · Gagra 4.55
- Implied 1X2 · Dila 53.6% · Draw 26.0% · Gagra 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dila 1.73 · Draw 3.57 · Gagra 4.55
- Implied 1X2 · Dila 53.6% · Draw 26.0% · Gagra 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dila win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Erovnuli Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 24 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Saburtalo | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 |
| 5 | Dila | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 36 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 28 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 25 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 16 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 25 | 41 | 32 | +9 | 43 |
| 2 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 25 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 24 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 39 |
| 4 | Samgurali | 25 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 32 |
| 5 | Spaeri | 25 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 25 |
| 6 | Saburtalo | 23 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 37 |
| 7 | Rustavi | 25 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 43 |
| 8 | Dila | 24 | 31 | 25 | +6 | 36 |
| 9 | Gagra | 25 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 28 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 25 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 16 |
