Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Gagra vs Saburtalo

Prediction Audit: Gagra vs Saburtalo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gagra Gagra
Aug 31, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.18
0 1.42
xG Accuracy: 54%
Saburtalo Saburtalo

The model missed the final outcome (Gagra win 2–0).

The model had projected Saburtalo at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Saburtalo Gagra ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Saburtalo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Saburtalo -5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gagra 29.7% 25.3% +4.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 28.5% +0.9 pp Aligned
Saburtalo 40.9% 46.2% -5.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Saburtalo's win probability at 46.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gagra win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Saburtalo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Saburtalo; match finished Gagra

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Saburtalo by 5.3 percentage points (46.2% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gagra 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Saburtalo 41.0%
    • xG · Gagra 1.18 — Saburtalo 1.42
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gagra 3.62 · Draw 3.21 · Saburtalo 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Gagra 25.3% · Draw 28.5% · Saburtalo 46.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gagra 3.62 · Draw 3.21 · Saburtalo 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Gagra 25.3% · Draw 28.5% · Saburtalo 46.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gagra win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5402381

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gagra win · Gagra 2–0 Saburtalo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Gagra vs Saburtalo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Gagra 1.18 — Saburtalo 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions