Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dila

Prediction Audit: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dila Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
Aug 31, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Dila Dila

The model missed the final outcome (Dinamo Tbilisi win 2–1).

The model had projected Dila at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dila Dinamo Tbilisi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dinamo Tbilisi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dinamo Tbilisi -12.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dinamo Tbilisi 34.2% 46.7% -12.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.1% +2.5 pp Aligned
Dila 36.1% 26.2% +9.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dinamo Tbilisi's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dinamo Tbilisi win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dinamo Tbilisi than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Dila; match finished Dinamo Tbilisi

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dila by 12.4 percentage points (48.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dinamo Tbilisi 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Dila 36.1%
    • xG · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.28 — Dila 1.32
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.96 · Draw 3.37 · Dila 3.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Tbilisi 46.7% · Draw 27.1% · Dila 26.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.96 · Draw 3.37 · Dila 3.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Tbilisi 46.7% · Draw 27.1% · Dila 26.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dinamo Tbilisi win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5404177

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Tbilisi win · Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 Dila
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dila
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Dinamo Tbilisi 1.28 — Dila 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions