Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Prediction Audit: Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Saburtalo Saburtalo
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 71%
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi

The model missed the final outcome (Dinamo Tbilisi win 1–2).

The model had projected Saburtalo at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Saburtalo Dinamo Tbilisi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Dinamo Tbilisi -2.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Saburtalo 40.9% 39.9% +1.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 27.8% +1.6 pp Aligned
Dinamo Tbilisi 29.7% 32.4% -2.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dinamo Tbilisi win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Saburtalo; match finished Dinamo Tbilisi

Market lesson

The full-time result was Dinamo Tbilisi win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Saburtalo 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Dinamo Tbilisi 29.6%
    • xG · Saburtalo 1.42 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.18
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Saburtalo 2.30 · Draw 3.30 · Dinamo Tbilisi 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo 39.9% · Draw 27.8% · Dinamo Tbilisi 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Saburtalo 2.30 · Draw 3.30 · Dinamo Tbilisi 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo 39.9% · Draw 27.8% · Dinamo Tbilisi 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dinamo Tbilisi win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 86/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4367611

Closing Odds 2.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Tbilisi win · Saburtalo 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Saburtalo 1.42 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions