Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Dila vs Meshakhte

Prediction Audit: Dila vs Meshakhte Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dila Dila
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 60%
Meshakhte Meshakhte

AI correctly predicted the Dila win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dila Dila ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dila higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dila -30.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dila 38.5% 69.3% -30.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.5% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Meshakhte 31.9% 11.2% +20.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dila's win probability at 69.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dila win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dila higher (69.3% vs model 38.5%, 30.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dila win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dila 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Meshakhte 31.9%
    • xG · Dila 1.37 — Meshakhte 1.23
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dila 1.32 · Draw 4.69 · Meshakhte 8.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Dila 69.3% · Draw 19.5% · Meshakhte 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Dila 1.32 · Draw 4.69 · Meshakhte 8.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Dila 69.3% · Draw 19.5% · Meshakhte 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dila win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3608718

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dila win · Dila 3–1 Meshakhte
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Dila; market prices Dila instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Dila 1.37 xG vs Meshakhte 1.23 → Dila 38.5%
  • Market: Dila ~69.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions