Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Prediction Audit: Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Spaeri Spaeri
Aug 09, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi

AI correctly predicted the Dinamo Tbilisi win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dinamo Tbilisi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dinamo Tbilisi -17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Spaeri 34.2% 23.4% +10.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.7% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Dinamo Tbilisi 36.1% 53.9% -17.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Dinamo Tbilisi's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dinamo Tbilisi win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dinamo Tbilisi than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dinamo Tbilisi higher (53.9% vs model 36.1%, 17.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dinamo Tbilisi win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Spaeri 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Dinamo Tbilisi 36.1%
    • xG · Spaeri 1.28 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.32
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Spaeri 3.91 · Draw 4.03 · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Spaeri 23.4% · Draw 22.7% · Dinamo Tbilisi 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Spaeri 3.91 · Draw 4.03 · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Spaeri 23.4% · Draw 22.7% · Dinamo Tbilisi 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dinamo Tbilisi win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966328

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Tbilisi win · Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Spaeri 1.28 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions