Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Prediction Audit: Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rustavi Rustavi
Aug 07, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi

The model missed the final outcome (Rustavi win 1–0).

The model had projected Torpedo Kutaisi at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Torpedo Kutaisi Rustavi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Torpedo Kutaisi; match finished Rustavi

Market lesson

The full-time result was Rustavi win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Rustavi 1.29 — Torpedo Kutaisi 1.31
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Rustavi win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2805699

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rustavi win · Rustavi 1–0 Torpedo Kutaisi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Rustavi 1.29 — Torpedo Kutaisi 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rustavi 28 14 7 7 49
2 Saburtalo 28 15 4 9 49
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 13 9 5 48
4 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
5 Dila 28 12 4 12 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 28 9 10 9 37
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 28 5 11 12 26
10 Meshakhte 28 2 11 15 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Torpedo Kutaisi 28 46 37 +9 37
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 45 30 +15 48
4 Saburtalo 28 40 31 +9 49
5 Dila 28 39 33 +6 40
6 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
7 Spaeri 28 37 46 -9 26
8 Rustavi 28 35 24 +11 49
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 28 21 46 -25 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions