The model missed the final outcome (Rustavi win 1–2).
The model had projected Saburtalo at 41.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Saburtalo Rustavi ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saburtalo | 41.3% | 44.3% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 30.2% | 32.4% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Rustavi | 28.5% | 23.3% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Rustavi's win probability at 28.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.3%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Rustavi win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Rustavi.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Saburtalo; match finished Rustavi
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Saburtalo by 5.2 percentage points (36.1% vs model 41.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Saburtalo 41.3% · Draw 30.2% · Rustavi 28.5%
- xG · Saburtalo 1.40 — Rustavi 1.20
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Saburtalo 2.10 · Draw 2.76 · Rustavi 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo 43.7% · Draw 33.2% · Rustavi 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Saburtalo 2.07 · Draw 2.83 · Rustavi 3.94
- Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo 44.3% · Draw 32.4% · Rustavi 23.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rustavi win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Erovnuli Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 2 | Saburtalo | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 3 | Rustavi | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | Dila | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 47 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 26 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 36 |
| 4 | Dila | 27 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 40 |
| 5 | Samgurali | 27 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 |
| 6 | Saburtalo | 26 | 37 | 28 | +9 | 46 |
| 7 | Spaeri | 27 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 25 |
| 8 | Rustavi | 27 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 46 |
| 9 | Gagra | 27 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 29 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 27 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 17 |
