Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Rustavi vs Meshakhte

Prediction Audit: Rustavi vs Meshakhte Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rustavi Rustavi
Jun 13, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Meshakhte Meshakhte

AI correctly predicted the Rustavi win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rustavi Rustavi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rustavi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rustavi -20.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rustavi 45.4% 66.3% -20.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.5% 21.8% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Meshakhte 26.1% 11.9% +14.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Rustavi's win probability at 66.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.4%, a difference of 20.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rustavi win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rustavi higher (66.3% vs model 45.4%, 20.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rustavi win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rustavi 45.4% · Draw 28.5% · Meshakhte 26.1%
    • xG · Rustavi 1.35 — Meshakhte 1.25
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rustavi 1.38 · Draw 4.20 · Meshakhte 7.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Rustavi 66.3% · Draw 21.8% · Meshakhte 11.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 13, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rustavi 1.38 · Draw 4.20 · Meshakhte 7.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Rustavi 66.3% · Draw 21.8% · Meshakhte 11.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rustavi win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1546970

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rustavi win · Rustavi 1–0 Meshakhte
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Rustavi vs Meshakhte
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Rustavi 1.35 — Meshakhte 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions