1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- PSV Eindhoven
- Model probability
- 51.8%
- Market probability
- 67.2%
- Difference
- -15.4 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -17.1%
No Value Edge
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction
Model leans PSV Eindhoven, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
No Primary Bet
3.5/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Calibration Risk
Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.
Other factors
- Market Conflict
Consensus EV
+5.1%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
15.4 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
51/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 51.8% |
| Market (no-vig) | 67.2% |
| Difference | +15.4 pp |
The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+5.1%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: PSV Eindhoven
Risk factors
- ✗Extreme xG calibration failedHome 2.41 · Away 1.75 · Peak +78%
- ✗Market pricing conflicts with the model favourite
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+95% EV → consensus +5.1%
Market Intelligence
Market move · Heerenveen · ↓ -7.7%
Breadth
7/14
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↓ -25.0%
Unibet
↓ -22.2%
10Bet
↓ -13.9%
Dafabet
↓ -7.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -7.7%
William Hill
↓ -7.7%
188Bet
↓ -5.1%
Move Score
38 (C)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseVolatile
StatusVolatile market
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved toward Heerenveen while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 78.4%
- Market probability (Over)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 76.1%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 76.1%
BTTS No 23.9%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 2-1
- Model probability (2-1)
- 7.9%
- Market probability (2-1)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 2-1 7.9%
- 2-2 6.9%
- 1-1 6.6%
- 3-1 6.4%
- 1-2 5.8%
Match Phase: Live · 1H
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Closing unavailable
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 6.0
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates PSV Eindhoven at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.2%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies PSV Eindhoven as the value side (51.8%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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