The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Sama Al Sarhan at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sama Al Sarhan Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Sama Al Sarhan 1.49 — Shabab Al Ordon 1.23
-
Feb 20, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sama Al Sarhan 0–0 Shabab Al Ordon
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hussein | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 43 |
| 2 | Al Faisaly | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 43 |
| 3 | Al Wihdat | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 40 |
| 4 | Al Ramtha | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 38 |
| 5 | Al Salt | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 6 | Al Jazeera | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Al Buqa'a | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 8 | Shabab Al Ordon | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 |
| 9 | Al Ahli | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| 10 | Sama Al Sarhan | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hussein | 19 | 53 | 15 | +38 | 43 |
| 2 | Al Faisaly | 20 | 42 | 19 | +23 | 43 |
| 3 | Al Buqa'a | 21 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 24 |
| 4 | Al Wihdat | 21 | 32 | 16 | +16 | 40 |
| 5 | Al Ramtha | 21 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 38 |
| 6 | Al Salt | 21 | 27 | 26 | +1 | 26 |
| 7 | Al Jazeera | 21 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 26 |
| 8 | Al Ahli | 21 | 18 | 35 | -17 | 16 |
| 9 | Shabab Al Ordon | 21 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 21 |
| 10 | Sama Al Sarhan | 20 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 6 |
