AI correctly predicted the Colwyn Bay win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
A
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Colwyn Bay win 3–1).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Colwyn Bay 1.45 — Barry Town 1.25
-
Mar 14, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colwyn Bay win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colwyn Bay win · Colwyn Bay 3–1 Barry Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 32 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 80 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 58 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Penybont | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 41 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 9 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | Bala Town | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 11 | Flint Town United | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 12 | llanelli AFC | 22 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 32 | 81 | 25 | +56 | 80 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 32 | 61 | 38 | +23 | 58 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 32 | 56 | 47 | +9 | 45 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 32 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 32 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 | Penybont | 32 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 41 |
| 7 | Flint Town United | 22 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 21 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 22 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 28 |
| 9 | Briton Ferry | 22 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 25 |
| 10 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 22 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 24 |
| 11 | Bala Town | 22 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 23 |
| 12 | llanelli AFC | 22 | 12 | 59 | -47 | 8 |
