Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri

Prediction Audit: Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stjarnan Stjarnan
Aug 23, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 39%
Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri

AI correctly predicted the Stjarnan win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Stjarnan Stjarnan ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stjarnan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stjarnan -27.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stjarnan 39.0% 66.6% -27.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 17.2% +12.3 pp Model Edge
Thor Akureyri 31.5% 16.2% +15.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Stjarnan's win probability at 66.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Stjarnan win 4–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stjarnan higher (66.6% vs model 39.0%, 27.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stjarnan win 4–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stjarnan 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Thor Akureyri 31.5%
    • xG · Stjarnan 1.38 — Thor Akureyri 1.22
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stjarnan 1.42 · Draw 5.50 · Thor Akureyri 5.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Stjarnan 66.6% · Draw 17.2% · Thor Akureyri 16.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stjarnan 1.42 · Draw 5.50 · Thor Akureyri 5.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Stjarnan 66.6% · Draw 17.2% · Thor Akureyri 16.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stjarnan win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4369554

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stjarnan win · Stjarnan 4–2 Thor Akureyri
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Stjarnan 1.38 — Thor Akureyri 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21