Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik

Prediction Audit: Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fram Reykjavik Fram Reykjavik
Aug 10, 2026 - 19:15
2 1.35
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 30%
KR Reykjavik KR Reykjavik

The model missed the final outcome (KR Reykjavik win 2–5).

The model had projected Fram Reykjavik at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fram Reykjavik KR Reykjavik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices KR Reykjavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: KR Reykjavik -11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fram Reykjavik 37.5% 34.7% +2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 21.5% +8.1 pp Model Higher
KR Reykjavik 32.9% 43.8% -11.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates KR Reykjavik's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was KR Reykjavik win 2–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about KR Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Fram Reykjavik; match finished KR Reykjavik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fram Reykjavik by 11.0 percentage points (48.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fram Reykjavik 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · KR Reykjavik 32.9%
    • xG · Fram Reykjavik 1.35 — KR Reykjavik 1.25
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fram Reykjavik 2.74 · Draw 4.43 · KR Reykjavik 2.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Fram Reykjavik 34.7% · Draw 21.5% · KR Reykjavik 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fram Reykjavik 2.74 · Draw 4.43 · KR Reykjavik 2.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Fram Reykjavik 34.7% · Draw 21.5% · KR Reykjavik 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result KR Reykjavik win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972860

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result KR Reykjavik win · Fram Reykjavik 2–5 KR Reykjavik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Fram Reykjavik 1.35 — KR Reykjavik 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21