Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri

Prediction Audit: KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KA Akureyri KA Akureyri
Jul 27, 2026 - 19:15
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected KA Akureyri at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 KA Akureyri Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices KA Akureyri higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: KA Akureyri -16.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KA Akureyri 39.0% 55.4% -16.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 22.1% +7.4 pp Model Higher
Thor Akureyri 31.5% 22.5% +9.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates KA Akureyri's win probability at 55.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about KA Akureyri than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned KA Akureyri; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on KA Akureyri by 16.4 percentage points (55.4% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KA Akureyri 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Thor Akureyri 31.5%
    • xG · KA Akureyri 1.38 — Thor Akureyri 1.22
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KA Akureyri 1.75 · Draw 4.25 · Thor Akureyri 4.05
    • Implied 1X2 · KA Akureyri 54.2% · Draw 22.3% · Thor Akureyri 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KA Akureyri 1.71 · Draw 4.28 · Thor Akureyri 4.21
    • Implied 1X2 · KA Akureyri 55.4% · Draw 22.1% · Thor Akureyri 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454986

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · KA Akureyri 0–0 Thor Akureyri
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): KA Akureyri 1.38 — Thor Akureyri 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21