Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan

Prediction Audit: KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KR Reykjavik KR Reykjavik
Jul 19, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 25%
Stjarnan Stjarnan

The model missed the final outcome (KR Reykjavik win 5–0).

The model had projected Stjarnan at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stjarnan KR Reykjavik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices KR Reykjavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: KR Reykjavik -28.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KR Reykjavik 33.8% 62.2% -28.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 16.7% +13.0 pp Model Edge
Stjarnan 36.6% 21.1% +15.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates KR Reykjavik's win probability at 62.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 28.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was KR Reykjavik win 5–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stjarnan by 28.4 percentage points (65.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KR Reykjavik 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Stjarnan 36.6%
    • xG · KR Reykjavik 1.27 — Stjarnan 1.33
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KR Reykjavik 1.52 · Draw 5.67 · Stjarnan 4.47
    • Implied 1X2 · KR Reykjavik 62.2% · Draw 16.7% · Stjarnan 21.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KR Reykjavik 1.52 · Draw 5.67 · Stjarnan 4.47
    • Implied 1X2 · KR Reykjavik 62.2% · Draw 16.7% · Stjarnan 21.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result KR Reykjavik win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1491298

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds 2.73
CLV Pending
Final Result KR Reykjavik win · KR Reykjavik 5–0 Stjarnan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): KR Reykjavik 1.27 — Stjarnan 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming Úrvalsdeild Matches Track KR Reykjavik Next Match Prediction Track Stjarnan Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21