The model missed the final outcome (Thor Akureyri win 2–1).
The model had projected Vikingur Reykjavik at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Vikingur Reykjavik Thor Akureyri ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 29.2% | 7.0% | +22.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 9.7% | +19.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 41.4% | 83.3% | -41.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Vikingur Reykjavik's win probability at 83.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 41.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Thor Akureyri win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Vikingur Reykjavik; match finished Thor Akureyri
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vikingur Reykjavik by 41.9 percentage points (83.3% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 16:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Thor Akureyri 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Vikingur Reykjavik 41.4%
- xG · Thor Akureyri 1.17 — Vikingur Reykjavik 1.43
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Thor Akureyri 13.48 · Draw 9.73 · Vikingur Reykjavik 1.13
- Implied 1X2 · Thor Akureyri 7.0% · Draw 9.7% · Vikingur Reykjavik 83.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Thor Akureyri 13.48 · Draw 9.73 · Vikingur Reykjavik 1.13
- Implied 1X2 · Thor Akureyri 7.0% · Draw 9.7% · Vikingur Reykjavik 83.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Thor Akureyri win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (42 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Úrvalsdeild — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 |
| 5 | Stjarnan | 22 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 |
| 9 | Keflavik | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 |
| 10 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 |
