The model missed the final outcome (Karmiotissa win 1–3).
The model had projected MEAP Nisou at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 MEAP Nisou Karmiotissa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned MEAP Nisou; match finished Karmiotissa
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Karmiotissa win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · MEAP Nisou 1.49 — Karmiotissa 1.23
-
Feb 07, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Karmiotissa win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.31
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Karmiotissa win · MEAP Nisou 1–3 Karmiotissa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 43.2%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nea Salamis | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 41 |
| 2 | PAEEK | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| 3 | Doxa | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 26 |
| 5 | Ayia Napa | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 26 |
| 6 | Karmiotissa | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | ASIL Lysi | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | MEAP Nisou | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | APEA | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 11 | Halkanoras | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 12 | Spartakos Kitiou | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 13 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Ethnikos Latsion | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 15 | AE Zakakiou | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| 16 | Ahironas / Onisilos | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 15 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 26 |
| 2 | Nea Salamis | 15 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 41 |
| 3 | Karmiotissa | 15 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 | PAEEK | 15 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 29 |
| 5 | Digenis Morphou | 15 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | Halkanoras | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 | Doxa | 15 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 27 |
| 8 | Ayia Napa | 15 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
| 9 | APEA | 15 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | MEAP Nisou | 15 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 | Spartakos Kitiou | 15 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | ASIL Lysi | 15 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 23 |
| 13 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 15 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | AE Zakakiou | 15 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | Ethnikos Latsion | 15 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 12 |
| 16 | Ahironas / Onisilos | 15 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 4 |
