Predictions / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Prediction Audit: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Portland Thorns W Portland Thorns W
Sep 13, 2026 - 23:00
1 2.13
1 1.89
xG Accuracy: 57%
Chicago Red Stars W Chicago Red Stars W

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Portland Thorns W at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Portland Thorns W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Portland Thorns W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Portland Thorns W -30.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Portland Thorns W 43.4% 73.6% -30.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 22.4% 15.1% +7.3 pp Model Higher
Chicago Red Stars W 34.2% 11.3% +22.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Portland Thorns W's win probability at 73.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 30.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Portland Thorns W; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Portland Thorns W by 30.2 percentage points (73.6% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Portland Thorns W 43.4% · Draw 22.4% · Chicago Red Stars W 34.2%
    • xG · Portland Thorns W 2.13 — Chicago Red Stars W 1.89
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Portland Thorns W 1.24 · Draw 6.06 · Chicago Red Stars W 8.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Portland Thorns W 73.6% · Draw 15.1% · Chicago Red Stars W 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Portland Thorns W 1.24 · Draw 6.06 · Chicago Red Stars W 8.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Portland Thorns W 73.6% · Draw 15.1% · Chicago Red Stars W 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (58%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461956

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Portland Thorns W 1–1 Chicago Red Stars W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Portland Thorns W; market prices Portland Thorns W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Portland Thorns W 2.13 xG vs Chicago Red Stars W 1.89 → Portland Thorns W 43.4%
  • Market: Portland Thorns W ~73.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 23.5% · Over 2.5 76.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 75.7% · No 24.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 26 15 3 8 48
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
5 Utah Royals W 25 13 3 9 42
6 Portland Thorns W 25 12 6 7 42
7 Kansas City W 26 12 5 9 41
8 Seattle Reign FC 26 12 4 10 40
9 North Carolina Courage W 25 12 3 10 39
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 25 9 3 13 30
12 Houston Dash W 25 8 5 12 29
13 Bay FC 25 7 5 13 26
14 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
15 Racing Louisville W 26 7 2 17 23
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 25 48 37 +11 39
2 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
3 Kansas City W 26 43 37 +6 41
4 Portland Thorns W 25 42 34 +8 42
5 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
6 Utah Royals W 25 41 33 +8 42
7 San Diego Wave W 26 38 27 +11 48
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Racing Louisville W 26 35 51 -16 23
10 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
11 Seattle Reign FC 26 33 31 +2 40
12 Orlando Pride W 25 32 40 -8 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
14 Houston Dash W 25 31 35 -4 29
15 Bay FC 25 26 34 -8 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 26 7.6 4.5 +3.1 48
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 25 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 25 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 25 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 26 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 25 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 26 3.7 4.2 -0.5 41
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 25 3.0 4.5 -1.5 42
13 Racing Louisville W 26 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 25 1.9 3.9 -2.0 29
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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