Predictions / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Prediction Audit: Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Denver Summit W
Sep 06, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.87
0 2.15
xG Accuracy: 41%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W NJ/NY Gotham FC W

The model missed the final outcome (Denver Summit W win 3–0).

The model had projected NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 43.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NJ/NY Gotham FC W Denver Summit W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates NJ/NY Gotham FC W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: NJ/NY Gotham FC W +5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Denver Summit W 33.6% 34.9% -1.3 pp Aligned
Draw 23.1% 27.1% -4.0 pp Aligned
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 43.3% 38.0% +5.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC W's win probability at 43.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 38.0%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Denver Summit W win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on NJ/NY Gotham FC W.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.02) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned NJ/NY Gotham FC W; match finished Denver Summit W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on NJ/NY Gotham FC W by 5.3 percentage points (38.0% vs model 43.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Denver Summit W 33.7% · Draw 23.0% · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 43.3%
    • xG · Denver Summit W 1.87 — NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.15
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Denver Summit W 2.64 · Draw 3.34 · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Denver Summit W 34.7% · Draw 27.4% · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 37.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Denver Summit W 2.66 · Draw 3.43 · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Denver Summit W 34.9% · Draw 27.1% · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 38.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Denver Summit W win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 70/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (59%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 73/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6371429

Closing Odds 2.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Denver Summit W win · Denver Summit W 3–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.7% · Draw 23.0% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Denver Summit W 1.87 — NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.15 (total xG ≈ 4.02)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 76.5% · Implied: 50.9% · Probability edge: +25.6 pts · Est. EV: +41.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 75.7% · No 24.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 26 15 3 8 48
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
5 Utah Royals W 25 13 3 9 42
6 Portland Thorns W 25 12 6 7 42
7 Kansas City W 26 12 5 9 41
8 Seattle Reign FC 26 12 4 10 40
9 North Carolina Courage W 25 12 3 10 39
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 25 9 3 13 30
12 Houston Dash W 25 8 5 12 29
13 Bay FC 25 7 5 13 26
14 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
15 Racing Louisville W 26 7 2 17 23
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 25 48 37 +11 39
2 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
3 Kansas City W 26 43 37 +6 41
4 Portland Thorns W 25 42 34 +8 42
5 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
6 Utah Royals W 25 41 33 +8 42
7 San Diego Wave W 26 38 27 +11 48
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Racing Louisville W 26 35 51 -16 23
10 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
11 Seattle Reign FC 26 33 31 +2 40
12 Orlando Pride W 25 32 40 -8 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
14 Houston Dash W 25 31 35 -4 29
15 Bay FC 25 26 34 -8 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 26 7.6 4.5 +3.1 48
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 25 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 25 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 25 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 26 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 25 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 26 3.7 4.2 -0.5 41
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 25 3.0 4.5 -1.5 42
13 Racing Louisville W 26 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 25 1.9 3.9 -2.0 29
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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