Predictions / Football / USA. NWSL Women / NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W

Prediction Audit: NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NJ/NY Gotham FC W NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Aug 15, 2026 - 00:00
2 2.13
1 2.18
xG Accuracy: 70%
Kansas City W Kansas City W

The model missed the final outcome (NJ/NY Gotham FC W win 2–1).

The model had projected Kansas City W at 40.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kansas City W NJ/NY Gotham FC W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 1-1, 2-3 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Kansas City W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Kansas City W +16.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 38.3% 51.4% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.5% 24.5% -3.0 pp Aligned
Kansas City W 40.2% 24.0% +16.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Kansas City W's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.0%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was NJ/NY Gotham FC W win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Kansas City W.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.31) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Kansas City W; match finished NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kansas City W by 16.1 percentage points (24.1% vs model 40.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 38.3% · Draw 21.5% · Kansas City W 40.2%
    • xG · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.13 — Kansas City W 2.18
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1.78 · Draw 3.73 · Kansas City W 3.81
    • Implied 1X2 · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 51.4% · Draw 24.5% · Kansas City W 24.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1.78 · Draw 3.73 · Kansas City W 3.81
    • Implied 1X2 · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 51.4% · Draw 24.5% · Kansas City W 24.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NJ/NY Gotham FC W win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (61%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 17/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3333934

Closing Odds 3.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NJ/NY Gotham FC W win · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2–1 Kansas City W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.13 — Kansas City W 2.18 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 26 15 3 8 48
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
5 Utah Royals W 25 13 3 9 42
6 Portland Thorns W 25 12 6 7 42
7 Kansas City W 26 12 5 9 41
8 Seattle Reign FC 26 12 4 10 40
9 North Carolina Courage W 25 12 3 10 39
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 25 9 3 13 30
12 Houston Dash W 25 8 5 12 29
13 Bay FC 25 7 5 13 26
14 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
15 Racing Louisville W 26 7 2 17 23
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 25 48 37 +11 39
2 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
3 Kansas City W 26 43 37 +6 41
4 Portland Thorns W 25 42 34 +8 42
5 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
6 Utah Royals W 25 41 33 +8 42
7 San Diego Wave W 26 38 27 +11 48
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Racing Louisville W 26 35 51 -16 23
10 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
11 Seattle Reign FC 26 33 31 +2 40
12 Orlando Pride W 25 32 40 -8 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
14 Houston Dash W 25 31 35 -4 29
15 Bay FC 25 26 34 -8 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 26 7.6 4.5 +3.1 48
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 25 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 25 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 25 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 26 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 25 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 26 3.7 4.2 -0.5 41
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 25 3.0 4.5 -1.5 42
13 Racing Louisville W 26 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 25 1.9 3.9 -2.0 29
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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