Predictions / Football / USA. NWSL Women / San Diego Wave W vs Seattle Reign FC

Prediction Audit: San Diego Wave W vs Seattle Reign FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Diego Wave W San Diego Wave W
Jul 26, 2026 - 21:00
0 2.33
2 1.98
xG Accuracy: 52%
Seattle Reign FC Seattle Reign FC

The model missed the final outcome (Seattle Reign FC win 0–2).

The model had projected San Diego Wave W at 45.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 San Diego Wave W Seattle Reign FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Seattle Reign FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Seattle Reign FC +13.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
San Diego Wave W 45.9% 56.8% -11.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.2% 23.8% -2.5 pp Aligned
Seattle Reign FC 32.9% 19.4% +13.5 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Seattle Reign FC's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.4%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Seattle Reign FC win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Seattle Reign FC.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on San Diego Wave W by 13.5 percentage points (32.4% vs model 45.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · San Diego Wave W 45.9% · Draw 21.2% · Seattle Reign FC 32.9%
    • xG · San Diego Wave W 2.33 — Seattle Reign FC 1.98
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · San Diego Wave W 1.61 · Draw 3.85 · Seattle Reign FC 4.72
    • Implied 1X2 · San Diego Wave W 56.8% · Draw 23.8% · Seattle Reign FC 19.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · San Diego Wave W 1.61 · Draw 3.85 · Seattle Reign FC 4.72
    • Implied 1X2 · San Diego Wave W 56.8% · Draw 23.8% · Seattle Reign FC 19.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Seattle Reign FC win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (73%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 32/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454791

Closing Odds 4.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Seattle Reign FC win · San Diego Wave W 0–2 Seattle Reign FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National Women's Soccer League
  • Fixture: San Diego Wave W vs Seattle Reign FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.9% · Draw 21.2% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): San Diego Wave W 2.33 — Seattle Reign FC 1.98 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 19.6% · Over 2.5 80.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 78.6% · No 21.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.6% · No 21.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (7.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 26 15 3 8 48
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
5 Utah Royals W 25 13 3 9 42
6 Portland Thorns W 25 12 6 7 42
7 Kansas City W 26 12 5 9 41
8 Seattle Reign FC 26 12 4 10 40
9 North Carolina Courage W 25 12 3 10 39
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 25 9 3 13 30
12 Houston Dash W 25 8 5 12 29
13 Bay FC 25 7 5 13 26
14 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
15 Racing Louisville W 26 7 2 17 23
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 25 48 37 +11 39
2 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
3 Kansas City W 26 43 37 +6 41
4 Portland Thorns W 25 42 34 +8 42
5 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
6 Utah Royals W 25 41 33 +8 42
7 San Diego Wave W 26 38 27 +11 48
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Racing Louisville W 26 35 51 -16 23
10 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
11 Seattle Reign FC 26 33 31 +2 40
12 Orlando Pride W 25 32 40 -8 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
14 Houston Dash W 25 31 35 -4 29
15 Bay FC 25 26 34 -8 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 26 7.6 4.5 +3.1 48
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 25 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 25 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 25 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 26 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 25 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 26 3.7 4.2 -0.5 41
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 25 3.0 4.5 -1.5 42
13 Racing Louisville W 26 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 25 1.9 3.9 -2.0 29
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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