Predictions / Football / Georgia. Liga 3 / Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Varketili

Prediction Audit: Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Varketili Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lokomotivi Tbilisi Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Sep 03, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 39%
Varketili Varketili

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Varketili at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Varketili Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Varketili higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Varketili -11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 32.9% 23.9% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.0 pp Aligned
Varketili 37.5% 48.5% -11.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Varketili's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Varketili than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Varketili; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Varketili by 11.0 percentage points (48.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Varketili 37.6%
    • xG · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1.25 — Varketili 1.35
  2. Sep 03, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3.71 · Draw 3.22 · Varketili 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 23.9% · Draw 27.6% · Varketili 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3.71 · Draw 3.22 · Varketili 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 23.9% · Draw 27.6% · Varketili 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5732313

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3–3 Varketili
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Varketili
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1.25 — Varketili 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guria 22 16 3 3 51
2 Varketili 22 14 7 1 49
3 Saburtalo II 22 11 8 3 41
4 Merani Tbilisi 22 11 6 5 39
5 Gonio 22 11 5 6 38
6 WIT Georgia 22 10 5 7 35
7 Irao 22 10 4 8 34
8 Didube 2014 22 9 7 6 34
9 Dinamo Tbilisi II 22 9 5 8 32
10 Margveti 2006 22 9 3 10 30
11 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 22 7 7 8 28
12 Kolkheti Khobi 22 6 3 13 21
13 Gardabani 22 4 4 14 16
14 Iveria Khashuri 22 1 10 11 13
15 Betlemi 22 3 4 15 13
16 Iberia 2010 22 2 5 15 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guria 22 63 11 +52 51
2 Varketili 22 54 14 +40 49
3 Merani Tbilisi 22 37 27 +10 39
4 Irao 22 36 25 +11 34
5 WIT Georgia 22 35 25 +10 35
6 Saburtalo II 22 34 16 +18 41
7 Didube 2014 22 34 28 +6 34
8 Dinamo Tbilisi II 22 34 30 +4 32
9 Gonio 22 32 22 +10 38
10 Margveti 2006 22 30 35 -5 30
11 Kolkheti Khobi 22 28 45 -17 21
12 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 22 27 28 -1 28
13 Iveria Khashuri 22 22 46 -24 13
14 Gardabani 22 18 53 -35 16
15 Iberia 2010 22 18 56 -38 11
16 Betlemi 22 13 54 -41 13