Predictions / Football / Georgia. Liga 3 / Gonio vs Saburtalo II

Prediction Audit: Gonio vs Saburtalo II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gonio Gonio
Aug 28, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 68%
Saburtalo II Saburtalo II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Gonio at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gonio Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gonio higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gonio -20.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gonio 37.1% 57.2% -20.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.0% +7.6 pp Model Higher
Saburtalo II 33.3% 20.7% +12.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gonio's win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 20.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Gonio; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gonio by 20.2 percentage points (57.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gonio 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Saburtalo II 33.4%
    • xG · Gonio 1.34 — Saburtalo II 1.26
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gonio 1.49 · Draw 3.87 · Saburtalo II 4.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Gonio 57.2% · Draw 22.0% · Saburtalo II 20.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gonio 1.49 · Draw 3.87 · Saburtalo II 4.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Gonio 57.2% · Draw 22.0% · Saburtalo II 20.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4922266

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gonio 2–2 Saburtalo II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Gonio vs Saburtalo II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Gonio 1.34 — Saburtalo II 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guria 22 16 3 3 51
2 Varketili 22 14 7 1 49
3 Saburtalo II 22 11 8 3 41
4 Merani Tbilisi 22 11 6 5 39
5 Gonio 22 11 5 6 38
6 WIT Georgia 22 10 5 7 35
7 Irao 22 10 4 8 34
8 Didube 2014 22 9 7 6 34
9 Dinamo Tbilisi II 22 9 5 8 32
10 Margveti 2006 22 9 3 10 30
11 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 22 7 7 8 28
12 Kolkheti Khobi 22 6 3 13 21
13 Gardabani 22 4 4 14 16
14 Iveria Khashuri 22 1 10 11 13
15 Betlemi 22 3 4 15 13
16 Iberia 2010 22 2 5 15 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guria 22 63 11 +52 51
2 Varketili 22 54 14 +40 49
3 Merani Tbilisi 22 37 27 +10 39
4 Irao 22 36 25 +11 34
5 WIT Georgia 22 35 25 +10 35
6 Saburtalo II 22 34 16 +18 41
7 Didube 2014 22 34 28 +6 34
8 Dinamo Tbilisi II 22 34 30 +4 32
9 Gonio 22 32 22 +10 38
10 Margveti 2006 22 30 35 -5 30
11 Kolkheti Khobi 22 28 45 -17 21
12 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 22 27 28 -1 28
13 Iveria Khashuri 22 22 46 -24 13
14 Gardabani 22 18 53 -35 16
15 Iberia 2010 22 18 56 -38 11
16 Betlemi 22 13 54 -41 13