Predictions / Football / Georgia. Liga 3 / Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Prediction Audit: Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Saburtalo II Saburtalo II
Aug 13, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.39
1 1.21
xG Accuracy: 85%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi Lokomotivi Tbilisi

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Saburtalo II at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Saburtalo II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Saburtalo II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Saburtalo II -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Saburtalo II 39.5% 57.6% -18.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.2% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 31.0% 18.1% +12.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Saburtalo II's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Saburtalo II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Saburtalo II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Saburtalo II by 18.2 percentage points (57.7% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 13, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Saburtalo II 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 31.0%
    • xG · Saburtalo II 1.39 — Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1.21
  2. Aug 13, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Saburtalo II 1.54 · Draw 3.66 · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo II 57.6% · Draw 24.2% · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 13, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Saburtalo II 1.54 · Draw 3.66 · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Saburtalo II 57.6% · Draw 24.2% · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 13, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3151941

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Saburtalo II 1–1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-13 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Saburtalo II 1.39 — Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guria 22 16 3 3 51
2 Varketili 22 14 7 1 49
3 Saburtalo II 22 11 8 3 41
4 Merani Tbilisi 22 11 6 5 39
5 Gonio 22 11 5 6 38
6 WIT Georgia 22 10 5 7 35
7 Irao 22 10 4 8 34
8 Didube 2014 22 9 7 6 34
9 Dinamo Tbilisi II 22 9 5 8 32
10 Margveti 2006 22 9 3 10 30
11 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 22 7 7 8 28
12 Kolkheti Khobi 22 6 3 13 21
13 Gardabani 22 4 4 14 16
14 Iveria Khashuri 22 1 10 11 13
15 Betlemi 22 3 4 15 13
16 Iberia 2010 22 2 5 15 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guria 22 63 11 +52 51
2 Varketili 22 54 14 +40 49
3 Merani Tbilisi 22 37 27 +10 39
4 Irao 22 36 25 +11 34
5 WIT Georgia 22 35 25 +10 35
6 Saburtalo II 22 34 16 +18 41
7 Didube 2014 22 34 28 +6 34
8 Dinamo Tbilisi II 22 34 30 +4 32
9 Gonio 22 32 22 +10 38
10 Margveti 2006 22 30 35 -5 30
11 Kolkheti Khobi 22 28 45 -17 21
12 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 22 27 28 -1 28
13 Iveria Khashuri 22 22 46 -24 13
14 Gardabani 22 18 53 -35 16
15 Iberia 2010 22 18 56 -38 11
16 Betlemi 22 13 54 -41 13