Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga 2 / Kolkheti Poti vs Merani Martvili

Prediction Audit: Kolkheti Poti vs Merani Martvili Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kolkheti Poti Kolkheti Poti
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
Merani Martvili Merani Martvili

AI correctly predicted the Kolkheti Poti win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kolkheti Poti Kolkheti Poti ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kolkheti Poti higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kolkheti Poti -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kolkheti Poti 37.5% 45.0% -7.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.8% +1.8 pp Aligned
Merani Martvili 32.9% 27.1% +5.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Kolkheti Poti's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kolkheti Poti win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kolkheti Poti. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kolkheti Poti higher (45.0% vs model 37.5%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kolkheti Poti win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kolkheti Poti 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Merani Martvili 32.9%
    • xG · Kolkheti Poti 1.35 — Merani Martvili 1.25
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kolkheti Poti 1.97 · Draw 3.19 · Merani Martvili 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Kolkheti Poti 45.0% · Draw 27.8% · Merani Martvili 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Kolkheti Poti 1.97 · Draw 3.19 · Merani Martvili 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Kolkheti Poti 45.0% · Draw 27.8% · Merani Martvili 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kolkheti Poti win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 06:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6353660

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kolkheti Poti win · Kolkheti Poti 2–0 Merani Martvili
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga 2
  • Fixture: Kolkheti Poti vs Merani Martvili
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Kolkheti Poti 1.35 — Merani Martvili 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga 2 Erovnuli Liga 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gareji 27 14 8 5 50
2 Telavi 27 11 10 6 43
3 Shturmi 27 11 10 6 43
4 Merani Martvili 27 10 7 10 37
5 Samtredia 27 11 4 12 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 10 5 12 35
7 Sioni 27 8 9 10 33
8 Odishi 1919 27 8 8 11 32
9 Kolkheti Poti 27 6 10 11 28
10 Gori 27 6 9 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Samtredia 27 48 40 +8 37
2 Gareji 27 35 28 +7 50
3 Sioni 27 35 34 +1 33
4 Kolkheti Poti 27 34 33 +1 28
5 Merani Martvili 27 30 34 -4 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 30 37 -7 35
7 Shturmi 27 29 23 +6 43
8 Telavi 27 29 25 +4 43
9 Odishi 1919 27 29 37 -8 32
10 Gori 27 27 35 -8 27