Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga 2 / Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti

Prediction Audit: Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gareji Gareji
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.43
2 1.17
xG Accuracy: 52%
Kolkheti Poti Kolkheti Poti

AI correctly predicted the Gareji win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gareji Gareji ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kolkheti Poti higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kolkheti Poti -9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gareji 41.4% 34.2% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 27.6% +1.8 pp Aligned
Kolkheti Poti 29.2% 38.3% -9.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kolkheti Poti's win probability at 38.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gareji win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kolkheti Poti. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gareji higher (50.4% vs model 41.4%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gareji win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gareji 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Kolkheti Poti 29.3%
    • xG · Gareji 1.43 — Kolkheti Poti 1.17
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gareji 2.65 · Draw 3.11 · Kolkheti Poti 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Gareji 32.8% · Draw 28.0% · Kolkheti Poti 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gareji 2.62 · Draw 3.25 · Kolkheti Poti 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Gareji 34.2% · Draw 27.6% · Kolkheti Poti 38.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gareji win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4221201

Closing Odds 2.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gareji win · Gareji 3–2 Kolkheti Poti
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga 2
  • Fixture: Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Gareji 1.43 — Kolkheti Poti 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga 2 Erovnuli Liga 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gareji 27 14 8 5 50
2 Telavi 27 11 10 6 43
3 Shturmi 27 11 10 6 43
4 Merani Martvili 27 10 7 10 37
5 Samtredia 27 11 4 12 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 10 5 12 35
7 Sioni 27 8 9 10 33
8 Odishi 1919 27 8 8 11 32
9 Kolkheti Poti 27 6 10 11 28
10 Gori 27 6 9 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Samtredia 27 48 40 +8 37
2 Gareji 27 35 28 +7 50
3 Sioni 27 35 34 +1 33
4 Kolkheti Poti 27 34 33 +1 28
5 Merani Martvili 27 30 34 -4 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 30 37 -7 35
7 Shturmi 27 29 23 +6 43
8 Telavi 27 29 25 +4 43
9 Odishi 1919 27 29 37 -8 32
10 Gori 27 27 35 -8 27