Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga 2 / Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction Audit: Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gareji Gareji
Aug 15, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 53%
Aragvi Dusheti Aragvi Dusheti

The model missed the final outcome (Aragvi Dusheti win 0–2).

The model had projected Gareji at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gareji Aragvi Dusheti ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Gareji higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gareji -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gareji 42.4% 48.6% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 28.4% +0.9 pp Aligned
Aragvi Dusheti 28.4% 23.0% +5.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Gareji's win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Aragvi Dusheti win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Gareji. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Gareji; match finished Aragvi Dusheti

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gareji by 6.2 percentage points (48.6% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gareji 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Aragvi Dusheti 28.4%
    • xG · Gareji 1.45 — Aragvi Dusheti 1.15
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gareji 1.85 · Draw 3.17 · Aragvi Dusheti 3.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Gareji 48.6% · Draw 28.4% · Aragvi Dusheti 23.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gareji 1.85 · Draw 3.17 · Aragvi Dusheti 3.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Gareji 48.6% · Draw 28.4% · Aragvi Dusheti 23.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aragvi Dusheti win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 06:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3390340

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aragvi Dusheti win · Gareji 0–2 Aragvi Dusheti
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga 2
  • Fixture: Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Gareji 1.45 — Aragvi Dusheti 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga 2 Erovnuli Liga 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gareji 27 14 8 5 50
2 Telavi 27 11 10 6 43
3 Shturmi 27 11 10 6 43
4 Merani Martvili 27 10 7 10 37
5 Samtredia 27 11 4 12 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 10 5 12 35
7 Sioni 27 8 9 10 33
8 Odishi 1919 27 8 8 11 32
9 Kolkheti Poti 27 6 10 11 28
10 Gori 27 6 9 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Samtredia 27 48 40 +8 37
2 Gareji 27 35 28 +7 50
3 Sioni 27 35 34 +1 33
4 Kolkheti Poti 27 34 33 +1 28
5 Merani Martvili 27 30 34 -4 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 30 37 -7 35
7 Shturmi 27 29 23 +6 43
8 Telavi 27 29 25 +4 43
9 Odishi 1919 27 29 37 -8 32
10 Gori 27 27 35 -8 27