Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga 2 / Telavi vs Gareji

Prediction Audit: Telavi vs Gareji Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Telavi Telavi
Aug 08, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 49%
Gareji Gareji

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Gareji at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gareji Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Telavi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Telavi -15.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Telavi 31.0% 46.0% -15.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 29.5% +0.0 pp Aligned
Gareji 39.5% 24.5% +15.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Telavi's win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Telavi than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Gareji; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gareji by 15.0 percentage points (54.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Telavi 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Gareji 39.5%
    • xG · Telavi 1.21 — Gareji 1.39
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Telavi 1.93 · Draw 3.01 · Gareji 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Telavi 46.0% · Draw 29.5% · Gareji 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Telavi 1.93 · Draw 3.01 · Gareji 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Telavi 46.0% · Draw 29.5% · Gareji 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2825241

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Telavi 0–0 Gareji
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga 2
  • Fixture: Telavi vs Gareji
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Telavi 1.21 — Gareji 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga 2 Erovnuli Liga 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gareji 27 14 8 5 50
2 Telavi 27 11 10 6 43
3 Shturmi 27 11 10 6 43
4 Merani Martvili 27 10 7 10 37
5 Samtredia 27 11 4 12 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 10 5 12 35
7 Sioni 27 8 9 10 33
8 Odishi 1919 27 8 8 11 32
9 Kolkheti Poti 27 6 10 11 28
10 Gori 27 6 9 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Samtredia 27 48 40 +8 37
2 Gareji 27 35 28 +7 50
3 Sioni 27 35 34 +1 33
4 Kolkheti Poti 27 34 33 +1 28
5 Merani Martvili 27 30 34 -4 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 30 37 -7 35
7 Shturmi 27 29 23 +6 43
8 Telavi 27 29 25 +4 43
9 Odishi 1919 27 29 37 -8 32
10 Gori 27 27 35 -8 27