Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 1 / Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang

Prediction Audit: Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bucheon FC 1995 Bucheon FC 1995
Jul 22, 2026 - 10:30
2 1.30
3 1.18
xG Accuracy: 50%
FC Anyang FC Anyang

The model missed the final outcome (FC Anyang win 2–3).

The model had projected Bucheon FC 1995 at 35.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bucheon FC 1995 FC Anyang ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Bucheon FC 1995 +4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bucheon FC 1995 35.9% 30.9% +4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 30.8% 32.3% -1.4 pp Aligned
FC Anyang 33.3% 36.8% -3.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Anyang win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Bucheon FC 1995; match finished FC Anyang

Market lesson

The full-time result was FC Anyang win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bucheon FC 1995 35.8% · Draw 30.9% · FC Anyang 33.3%
    • xG · Bucheon FC 1995 1.30 — FC Anyang 1.18
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bucheon FC 1995 3.13 · Draw 3.00 · FC Anyang 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Bucheon FC 1995 30.9% · Draw 32.3% · FC Anyang 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bucheon FC 1995 3.13 · Draw 3.00 · FC Anyang 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Bucheon FC 1995 30.9% · Draw 32.3% · FC Anyang 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Anyang win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1493621

Closing Odds 3.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Anyang win · Bucheon FC 1995 2–3 FC Anyang
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K League 1
  • Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Bucheon FC 1995 1.3 — FC Anyang 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 1 K League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 19 5 6 62
2 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 14 5 11 47
3 Jeju United FC 30 12 10 8 46
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 11 11 8 44
5 Gangwon FC 29 10 12 7 42
6 Daejeon Citizen 30 10 10 10 40
7 Pohang Steelers 30 11 7 12 40
8 FC Anyang 30 9 11 10 38
9 Incheon United 29 10 8 11 38
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 5 18 7 33
11 Bucheon FC 1995 30 7 11 12 32
12 Gwangju FC 30 1 12 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 56 25 +31 62
2 Daejeon Citizen 30 46 37 +9 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 45 40 +5 47
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 38 28 +10 44
5 FC Anyang 30 38 47 -9 38
6 Gangwon FC 29 36 28 +8 42
7 Incheon United 29 36 33 +3 38
8 Jeju United FC 30 35 29 +6 46
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 31 40 -9 32
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 30 36 -6 33
11 Pohang Steelers 30 28 34 -6 40
12 Gwangju FC 30 21 63 -42 15
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Incheon United 29 2.3 0.7 +1.6 38
2 Pohang Steelers 30 1.6 0.6 +1.0 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 2.0 1.3 +0.7 47
4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 2.0 1.4 +0.6 33
5 Gangwon FC 29 0.9 0.5 +0.4 42
6 Jeju United FC 30 0.9 0.7 +0.2 46
7 Daejeon Citizen 30 0.7 0.9 -0.2 40
8 FC Seoul 30 0.5 0.9 -0.4 62
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 1.4 2.0 -0.6 32
10 Jeonbuk Motors 30 1.3 2.0 -0.7 44
11 Gwangju FC 30 0.6 1.6 -1.0 15
12 FC Anyang 30 0.7 2.3 -1.6 38