Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. 1. Deild / NSÍ II vs EB / Streymur II

Prediction Audit: NSÍ II vs EB / Streymur II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NSÍ II NSÍ II
Sep 06, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 47%
EB / Streymur II EB / Streymur II

AI correctly predicted the NSÍ II win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 NSÍ II NSÍ II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices NSÍ II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NSÍ II -20.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NSÍ II 40.9% 61.2% -20.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 19.4% +9.9 pp Model Higher
EB / Streymur II 29.7% 19.4% +10.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates NSÍ II's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NSÍ II win 4–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NSÍ II higher (61.2% vs model 40.9%, 20.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NSÍ II win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NSÍ II 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · EB / Streymur II 29.6%
    • xG · NSÍ II 1.42 — EB / Streymur II 1.18
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NSÍ II 1.45 · Draw 4.56 · EB / Streymur II 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · NSÍ II 61.2% · Draw 19.4% · EB / Streymur II 19.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · NSÍ II 1.45 · Draw 4.56 · EB / Streymur II 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · NSÍ II 61.2% · Draw 19.4% · EB / Streymur II 19.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NSÍ II win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 06:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6353620

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NSÍ II win · NSÍ II 4–1 EB / Streymur II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: NSÍ II vs EB / Streymur II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): NSÍ II 1.42 — EB / Streymur II 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 1. Deild Matches Track NSÍ II Next Match Prediction Track EB / Streymur II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for NSÍ II & EB / Streymur II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 B71 24 19 2 3 59
2 Víkingur II 24 17 3 4 54
3 Suduroy 24 16 2 6 50
4 ÍF II 24 10 7 7 37
5 TB 24 8 7 9 31
6 B36 II 24 9 2 13 29
7 NSÍ II 24 7 4 13 25
8 Hoyvík 24 7 2 15 23
9 HB II 24 5 7 12 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 B71 24 76 25 +51 59
2 Suduroy 24 73 33 +40 50
3 Víkingur II 24 61 39 +22 54
4 ÍF II 24 55 48 +7 37
5 B36 II 24 51 62 -11 29
6 TB 24 46 51 -5 31
7 Hoyvík 24 36 67 -31 23
8 NSÍ II 24 34 55 -21 25
9 HB II 24 30 41 -11 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 30 71 -41 11