The model missed the final outcome (Hoyvík win 1–2).
The model had projected ÍF II at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 ÍF II Hoyvík ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ÍF II | 39.9% | 51.9% | -11.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 22.0% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Hoyvík | 30.6% | 26.1% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates ÍF II's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Hoyvík win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about ÍF II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned ÍF II; match finished Hoyvík
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on ÍF II by 11.9 percentage points (51.8% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ÍF II 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Hoyvík 30.6%
- xG · ÍF II 1.40 — Hoyvík 1.20
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ÍF II 1.71 · Draw 4.03 · Hoyvík 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · ÍF II 51.9% · Draw 22.0% · Hoyvík 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · ÍF II 1.71 · Draw 4.03 · Hoyvík 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · ÍF II 51.9% · Draw 22.0% · Hoyvík 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hoyvík win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Deild — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B71 | 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 59 |
| 2 | Víkingur II | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 3 | Suduroy | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 50 |
| 4 | ÍF II | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | TB | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 6 | B36 II | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 7 | NSÍ II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 8 | Hoyvík | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 9 | HB II | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 |
| 10 | EB / Streymur II | 24 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B71 | 24 | 76 | 25 | +51 | 59 |
| 2 | Suduroy | 24 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 50 |
| 3 | Víkingur II | 24 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 54 |
| 4 | ÍF II | 24 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 37 |
| 5 | B36 II | 24 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 29 |
| 6 | TB | 24 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 31 |
| 7 | Hoyvík | 24 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 23 |
| 8 | NSÍ II | 24 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 25 |
| 9 | HB II | 24 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 22 |
| 10 | EB / Streymur II | 24 | 30 | 71 | -41 | 11 |
