The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected HB at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 HB Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skála | 24.5% | 21.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.6% | 23.4% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
| HB | 46.8% | 55.2% | -8.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates HB's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on HB. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on HB by 8.4 percentage points (55.2% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Skála 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · HB 46.8%
- xG · Skála 1.06 — HB 1.54
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Skála 3.94 · Draw 3.83 · HB 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Skála 23.3% · Draw 24.0% · HB 52.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Skála 4.34 · Draw 3.96 · HB 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Skála 21.4% · Draw 23.4% · HB 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Meistaradeildin — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSI Runavik | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 2 | KI Klaksvik | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 41 |
| 3 | HB | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | B36 Torshavn | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 35 |
| 5 | Vikingur Gota | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 33 |
| 6 | AB | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 7 | Skála | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | EB / Streymur | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 9 | 07 Vestur | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
| 10 | B68 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSI Runavik | 21 | 44 | 24 | +20 | 44 |
| 2 | KI Klaksvik | 21 | 42 | 19 | +23 | 41 |
| 3 | HB | 21 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 37 |
| 4 | B36 Torshavn | 21 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Vikingur Gota | 21 | 30 | 23 | +7 | 33 |
| 6 | AB | 21 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 23 |
| 7 | EB / Streymur | 21 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
| 8 | Skála | 21 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 21 |
| 9 | B68 | 21 | 21 | 42 | -21 | 16 |
| 10 | 07 Vestur | 21 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 18 |
