Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / Skála vs 07 Vestur

Prediction Audit: Skála vs 07 Vestur Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Skála Skála
Aug 30, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 85%
07 Vestur 07 Vestur

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected 07 Vestur at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 07 Vestur Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Skála higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Skála -14.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Skála 33.8% 48.7% -14.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.2 pp Aligned
07 Vestur 36.6% 24.8% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Skála's win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Skála than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned 07 Vestur; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on 07 Vestur by 14.9 percentage points (51.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Skála 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · 07 Vestur 36.6%
    • xG · Skála 1.27 — 07 Vestur 1.33
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Skála 1.88 · Draw 3.46 · 07 Vestur 3.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Skála 48.7% · Draw 26.5% · 07 Vestur 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Skála 1.88 · Draw 3.46 · 07 Vestur 3.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Skála 48.7% · Draw 26.5% · 07 Vestur 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5301125

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Skála 1–1 07 Vestur
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: Skála vs 07 Vestur
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Skála 1.27 — 07 Vestur 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19