Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / Skála vs Vikingur Gota

Prediction Audit: Skála vs Vikingur Gota Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Skála Skála
Aug 16, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.12
1 1.48
xG Accuracy: 69%
Vikingur Gota Vikingur Gota

The model missed the final outcome (Skála win 2–1).

The model had projected Vikingur Gota at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vikingur Gota Skála ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Vikingur Gota higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vikingur Gota -17.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Skála 27.1% 17.2% +9.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.1% 21.8% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Vikingur Gota 43.8% 61.0% -17.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Vikingur Gota's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Skála win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Vikingur Gota than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Vikingur Gota; match finished Skála

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vikingur Gota by 17.2 percentage points (61.0% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Skála 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Vikingur Gota 43.9%
    • xG · Skála 1.12 — Vikingur Gota 1.48
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Skála 5.33 · Draw 4.19 · Vikingur Gota 1.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Skála 17.2% · Draw 21.8% · Vikingur Gota 61.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Skála 5.33 · Draw 4.19 · Vikingur Gota 1.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Skála 17.2% · Draw 21.8% · Vikingur Gota 61.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Skála win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3613251

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Skála win · Skála 2–1 Vikingur Gota
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: Skála vs Vikingur Gota
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
  • xG (showing): Skála 1.12 — Vikingur Gota 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19