AI correctly predicted the NSI Runavik win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 NSI Runavik NSI Runavik ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSI Runavik | 45.3% | 73.6% | -28.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 13.8% | +15.0 pp | Model Edge |
| EB / Streymur | 25.8% | 12.6% | +13.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates NSI Runavik's win probability at 73.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 28.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NSI Runavik win 4–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- NSI Runavik attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NSI Runavik higher (73.6% vs model 45.3%, 28.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NSI Runavik win 4–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · NSI Runavik 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · EB / Streymur 25.8%
- xG · NSI Runavik 1.51 — EB / Streymur 1.09
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · NSI Runavik 1.24 · Draw 6.59 · EB / Streymur 7.26
- Implied 1X2 · NSI Runavik 73.6% · Draw 13.8% · EB / Streymur 12.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · NSI Runavik 1.24 · Draw 6.59 · EB / Streymur 7.26
- Implied 1X2 · NSI Runavik 73.6% · Draw 13.8% · EB / Streymur 12.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result NSI Runavik win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Meistaradeildin — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSI Runavik | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| 2 | KI Klaksvik | 23 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 3 | HB | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Vikingur Gota | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 35 |
| 5 | B36 Torshavn | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 6 | EB / Streymur | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 26 |
| 7 | AB | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 8 | Skála | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 9 | 07 Vestur | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | B68 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSI Runavik | 23 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 48 |
| 2 | KI Klaksvik | 23 | 45 | 21 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | HB | 23 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 41 |
| 4 | Vikingur Gota | 23 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | B36 Torshavn | 23 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | AB | 23 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 24 |
| 7 | EB / Streymur | 23 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 26 |
| 8 | Skála | 23 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | B68 | 23 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 17 |
| 10 | 07 Vestur | 23 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 19 |
