Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / 07 Vestur vs B36 Torshavn

Prediction Audit: 07 Vestur vs B36 Torshavn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

07 Vestur 07 Vestur
Aug 16, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.19
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 81%
B36 Torshavn B36 Torshavn

AI correctly predicted the B36 Torshavn win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 B36 Torshavn B36 Torshavn ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices B36 Torshavn higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: B36 Torshavn -16.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
07 Vestur 30.1% 19.6% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 24.0% +5.4 pp Model Higher
B36 Torshavn 40.4% 56.4% -16.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates B36 Torshavn's win probability at 56.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (B36 Torshavn win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about B36 Torshavn than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced B36 Torshavn higher (56.4% vs model 40.4%, 16.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (B36 Torshavn win 1–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 07 Vestur 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · B36 Torshavn 40.5%
    • xG · 07 Vestur 1.19 — B36 Torshavn 1.41
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 07 Vestur 4.67 · Draw 3.80 · B36 Torshavn 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · 07 Vestur 19.6% · Draw 24.0% · B36 Torshavn 56.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 07 Vestur 4.67 · Draw 3.80 · B36 Torshavn 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · 07 Vestur 19.6% · Draw 24.0% · B36 Torshavn 56.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result B36 Torshavn win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3612057

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result B36 Torshavn win · 07 Vestur 1–2 B36 Torshavn
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: 07 Vestur vs B36 Torshavn
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): 07 Vestur 1.19 — B36 Torshavn 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19