Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / NSI Runavik vs Skála

Prediction Audit: NSI Runavik vs Skála Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NSI Runavik NSI Runavik
Aug 10, 2026 - 18:00
4 1.56
0 1.04
xG Accuracy: 38%
Skála Skála

AI correctly predicted the NSI Runavik win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NSI Runavik NSI Runavik ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices NSI Runavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NSI Runavik -16.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NSI Runavik 47.8% 64.0% -16.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.5% 20.0% +8.4 pp Model Higher
Skála 23.7% 16.0% +7.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates NSI Runavik's win probability at 64.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NSI Runavik win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about NSI Runavik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • NSI Runavik attacking xG significantly stronger (1.56 vs 1.04)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NSI Runavik higher (63.9% vs model 47.8%, 16.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NSI Runavik win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NSI Runavik 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Skála 23.7%
    • xG · NSI Runavik 1.56 — Skála 1.04
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NSI Runavik 1.45 · Draw 4.63 · Skála 5.79
    • Implied 1X2 · NSI Runavik 64.0% · Draw 20.0% · Skála 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · NSI Runavik 1.45 · Draw 4.63 · Skála 5.79
    • Implied 1X2 · NSI Runavik 64.0% · Draw 20.0% · Skála 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NSI Runavik win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966785

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NSI Runavik win · NSI Runavik 4–0 Skála
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: NSI Runavik vs Skála
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 23.7%
  • xG (showing): NSI Runavik 1.56 — Skála 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19