Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / B36 Torshavn vs AB

Prediction Audit: B36 Torshavn vs AB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

B36 Torshavn B36 Torshavn
Jul 28, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 64%
AB AB

AI correctly predicted the B36 Torshavn win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 B36 Torshavn B36 Torshavn ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices B36 Torshavn higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: B36 Torshavn -15.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
B36 Torshavn 46.2% 61.5% -15.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.7% 22.1% +5.6 pp Model Higher
AB 26.1% 16.4% +9.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates B36 Torshavn's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.2%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (B36 Torshavn win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about B36 Torshavn than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced B36 Torshavn higher (61.5% vs model 46.2%, 15.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (B36 Torshavn win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 28, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · B36 Torshavn 46.2% · Draw 27.7% · AB 26.1%
    • xG · B36 Torshavn 1.40 — AB 1.20
  2. Jul 28, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · B36 Torshavn 1.49 · Draw 4.16 · AB 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · B36 Torshavn 61.5% · Draw 22.1% · AB 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · B36 Torshavn 1.49 · Draw 4.16 · AB 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · B36 Torshavn 61.5% · Draw 22.1% · AB 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result B36 Torshavn win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454655

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result B36 Torshavn win · B36 Torshavn 1–0 AB
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: B36 Torshavn vs AB
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-28 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.2% · Draw 27.7% · Away 26.1%
  • xG (showing): B36 Torshavn 1.4 — AB 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19