Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / KI Klaksvik vs HB

Prediction Audit: KI Klaksvik vs HB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KI Klaksvik KI Klaksvik
Aug 10, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 55%
HB HB

The model missed the final outcome (HB win 0–2).

The model had projected KI Klaksvik at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 KI Klaksvik HB ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices KI Klaksvik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: KI Klaksvik -17.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KI Klaksvik 39.0% 56.5% -17.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 23.8% +5.8 pp Model Higher
HB 31.5% 19.8% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates KI Klaksvik's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 17.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was HB win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about KI Klaksvik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned KI Klaksvik; match finished HB

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on KI Klaksvik by 17.5 percentage points (56.5% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KI Klaksvik 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · HB 31.5%
    • xG · KI Klaksvik 1.38 — HB 1.22
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KI Klaksvik 1.62 · Draw 3.85 · HB 4.63
    • Implied 1X2 · KI Klaksvik 56.5% · Draw 23.8% · HB 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KI Klaksvik 1.62 · Draw 3.85 · HB 4.63
    • Implied 1X2 · KI Klaksvik 56.5% · Draw 23.8% · HB 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result HB win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2675162

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result HB win · KI Klaksvik 0–2 HB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: KI Klaksvik vs HB
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): KI Klaksvik 1.38 — HB 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19