AI correctly predicted the Vikingur Gota win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Vikingur Gota Vikingur Gota ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB / Streymur | 29.2% | 19.4% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 19.5% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Vikingur Gota | 41.4% | 61.1% | -19.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Vikingur Gota's win probability at 61.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 19.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vikingur Gota win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Vikingur Gota than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vikingur Gota higher (61.1% vs model 41.4%, 19.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vikingur Gota win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · EB / Streymur 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Vikingur Gota 41.4%
- xG · EB / Streymur 1.17 — Vikingur Gota 1.43
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · EB / Streymur 4.79 · Draw 4.77 · Vikingur Gota 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · EB / Streymur 19.4% · Draw 19.5% · Vikingur Gota 61.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · EB / Streymur 4.79 · Draw 4.77 · Vikingur Gota 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · EB / Streymur 19.4% · Draw 19.5% · Vikingur Gota 61.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vikingur Gota win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Meistaradeildin — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSI Runavik | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| 2 | KI Klaksvik | 23 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 3 | HB | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Vikingur Gota | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 35 |
| 5 | B36 Torshavn | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 6 | EB / Streymur | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 26 |
| 7 | AB | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 8 | Skála | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 9 | 07 Vestur | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | B68 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSI Runavik | 23 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 48 |
| 2 | KI Klaksvik | 23 | 45 | 21 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | HB | 23 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 41 |
| 4 | Vikingur Gota | 23 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | B36 Torshavn | 23 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | AB | 23 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 24 |
| 7 | EB / Streymur | 23 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 26 |
| 8 | Skála | 23 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | B68 | 23 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 17 |
| 10 | 07 Vestur | 23 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 19 |
