Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / AB vs EB / Streymur

Prediction Audit: AB vs EB / Streymur Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AB AB
Jul 04, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 73%
EB / Streymur EB / Streymur

The model missed the final outcome (EB / Streymur win 1–2).

The model had projected AB at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AB EB / Streymur ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices AB higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: AB -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
AB 38.5% 48.4% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.0% +3.6 pp Aligned
EB / Streymur 31.9% 25.6% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates AB's win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was EB / Streymur win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on AB. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned AB; match finished EB / Streymur

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on AB by 9.9 percentage points (48.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 04, 2026 · 21:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · AB 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · EB / Streymur 31.9%
    • xG · AB 1.37 — EB / Streymur 1.23
  2. Jul 04, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · AB 1.89 · Draw 3.52 · EB / Streymur 3.58
    • Implied 1X2 · AB 48.4% · Draw 26.0% · EB / Streymur 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 04, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · AB 1.89 · Draw 3.52 · EB / Streymur 3.58
    • Implied 1X2 · AB 48.4% · Draw 26.0% · EB / Streymur 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 04, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result EB / Streymur win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1782840

Closing Odds 1.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result EB / Streymur win · AB 1–2 EB / Streymur
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: AB vs EB / Streymur
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): AB 1.37 — EB / Streymur 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19