Predictions / Football / Chile. Primera División / Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido

Prediction Audit: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile
Sep 06, 2026 - 00:00
4 1.32
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 40%
Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido

The model missed the final outcome (Universidad de Chile win 4–2).

The model had projected Coquimbo Unido at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Coquimbo Unido Universidad de Chile ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.69) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Coquimbo Unido; match finished Universidad de Chile
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Universidad de Chile win 4–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Universidad de Chile 1.32 — Coquimbo Unido 1.37
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Universidad de Chile win · 4–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6319205

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Universidad de Chile win · Universidad de Chile 4–2 Coquimbo Unido
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Universidad de Chile 1.32 — Coquimbo Unido 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.69)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colo Colo 23 17 3 3 54
2 U. Catolica 23 13 3 7 42
3 Universidad de Chile 23 12 6 5 42
4 Everton de Vina 23 10 6 7 36
5 Palestino 23 11 3 9 36
6 Deportes Limache 23 10 3 10 33
7 Nublense 23 8 8 7 32
8 Concepción 23 9 4 10 31
9 D. La Serena 23 7 9 7 30
10 Coquimbo Unido 22 8 5 9 29
11 A. Italiano 23 7 7 9 28
12 O'Higgins 23 8 3 12 27
13 Huachipato 21 7 4 10 25
14 Cobresal 23 7 3 13 24
15 Universidad de Concepcion 22 6 4 12 22
16 Union La Calera 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. Catolica 23 50 33 +17 42
2 Colo Colo 23 48 22 +26 54
3 Deportes Limache 23 43 35 +8 33
4 Everton de Vina 23 37 25 +12 36
5 Palestino 23 36 33 +3 36
6 Universidad de Chile 23 35 19 +16 42
7 D. La Serena 23 34 38 -4 30
8 Cobresal 23 34 44 -10 24
9 Coquimbo Unido 22 31 31 0 29
10 Huachipato 21 29 39 -10 25
11 Nublense 23 28 31 -3 32
12 O'Higgins 23 28 36 -8 27
13 A. Italiano 23 26 31 -5 28
14 Concepción 23 25 26 -1 31
15 Union La Calera 23 19 40 -21 17
16 Universidad de Concepcion 22 17 37 -20 22
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 U. Catolica 23 1.5 1.2 +0.3 42
2 Nublense 23 1.2 1.5 -0.3 32
3 Colo Colo 23 — — — 54
4 Universidad de Chile 23 — — — 42
5 Everton de Vina 23 — — — 36
6 Palestino 23 — — — 36
7 Deportes Limache 23 — — — 33
8 Concepción 23 — — — 31
9 D. La Serena 23 — — — 30
10 Coquimbo Unido 22 — — — 29
11 A. Italiano 23 — — — 28
12 O'Higgins 23 — — — 27
13 Huachipato 21 — — — 25
14 Cobresal 23 — — — 24
15 Universidad de Concepcion 22 — — — 22
16 Union La Calera 23 — — — 17
Primera División Chile. Primera División Predictions