Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Vasalund vs Assyriska FF

Prediction Audit: Vasalund vs Assyriska FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vasalund Vasalund
Sep 21, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.41
5 1.19
xG Accuracy: 31%
Assyriska FF Assyriska FF

The model missed the final outcome (Assyriska FF win 1–5).

The model had projected Vasalund at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vasalund Assyriska FF ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vasalund 40.4% 42.2% -1.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 26.1% +3.4 pp Aligned
Assyriska FF 30.1% 31.8% -1.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Assyriska FF win 1–5.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Assyriska FF win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vasalund 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Assyriska FF 30.1%
    • xG · Vasalund 1.41 — Assyriska FF 1.19
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vasalund 2.01 · Draw 3.25 · Assyriska FF 2.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasalund 42.2% · Draw 26.1% · Assyriska FF 31.8%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vasalund 2.01 · Draw 3.25 · Assyriska FF 2.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasalund 42.2% · Draw 26.1% · Assyriska FF 31.8%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Assyriska FF win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 83/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8840026

Closing Odds 3.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Assyriska FF win · Vasalund 1–5 Assyriska FF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Vasalund vs Assyriska FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Vasalund 1.41 — Assyriska FF 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.8% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 24 12 6 6 42
6 IF Karlstad 24 11 7 6 40
7 Enköping 24 12 3 9 39
8 Assyriska FF 24 9 5 10 32
9 gefle IF 24 9 3 12 30
10 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
11 Karlberg 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 24 5 9 10 24
14 Piteå 24 5 6 13 21
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 24 43 42 +1 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 24 39 33 +6 42
8 Enköping 24 37 40 -3 39
9 IF Karlstad 24 36 24 +12 40
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
12 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
13 Karlberg 24 30 39 -9 29
14 gefle IF 24 29 42 -13 30
15 Piteå 24 29 45 -16 21
16 Sollentuna 24 22 33 -11 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions